Market Strategy Report

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Calm and firm amid volatile period

Economic downturn for most 2Q

We raise our 2019 year-end range for the VN-Index to 970-1,010 from 940-1,000 as rate cuts from central banks and a partial US-China trade deal improve market conditions. Although we are looking for quieter performance in 4Q, this will likely only be a pause for the market and our outlook remains positive. Sectors we view as Positive include: power, IT, and retailing but are more selective for banks in 4Q. We are Neutral on industrial parks. Any sustained move above 1,000 in 4Q likely capped. As sentiment peaks for these events, we do not rule out short-term moves above 1,000 but concerns of a standstill in US-China trade talks, disappointments on Fed rates cuts, and growing evidence of a global slowdown in 2020 are likely to continue to weigh on market sentiment in 4Q and limit any gains. Large caps should continue to lead the market and our expectations for an unexciting 3Q earnings season for the lagging mid-caps will likely make it difficult for performance to catch up with large-

Q2 business results were more positive than those in Q1, and went beyond market’s expectations There was a surge in the revenue growth of large cap companies, which was also the main force of growth for the whole market in Q2 The overall profit margin was still at a good level

GDP growth: GDP growth in the first two quarters of 2019 was modest with the main force of processing – manufacturing sector. GDP in 2019 is forecast to have a positive growth of 6.6 – 6.8%. Inflation: Inflation in the 1H.2019 hit its 3-year lows, but the inflation pressure is expected to come back due to the increase in the government administrated prices. The average inflation rate in 2019 is under control, stays around 3.5 – 4.0%. Monetary policy: The SBV management of monetary policy was quite easing in 1H.2019, but in the last six months, it will be more prudent under the pressure of core inflation. Exchange rate: The VND dipped 0.54% YTD and is expected to depreciate 2 – 2.5% in the whole year of 2019.

Vietnam stock market saw positive performance with a strong growth in most of the 1Q before entering a sideways drift around 1,000 point threshold in the last two trading weeks of the quarter. The growth force of the market in the 1Q comes from the bottom-fishing demand of domestic investors and net-buying cash flow of foreign investors. Foreign investors have net-bought for two consecutive quarters in Vietnam stock market, which is in line with the trend of global capital flow running into emerging markets in the 1Q. If in early 2Q, the market receives many news from the AGMs and business performance in the 1Q, there will be less information in the second half of the quarter. Powerful drivers of the market still come from external factors such as the trade war, Brexit, the US yield curve, monetary policies and economic outlook of some major economies… In the basic scenario, external risks do not get worse, VNIndex is forecast to stay in a sideways drift and slightly decrease in ear

Vietnam stock market in 2018 witnessed significant changes, which is contrary to the stable growth in 2016-2017. Internal factors still remained positive and supportive to the market. However, the strong impacts from external risks triggered a simultaneous correction in main indices of 2018. Foreign investors net-bought with a record volume in Vietnam stock market in 2018 (contrary to the net-sold trend in other emerging markets), mainly focused on VHM, VRE, YEG, MSN… Vietnam stock market in 2019 is expect to be volatile under the impacts of external factors, while domestic factors remain neutral. Economic growth and profit growth of listed companies will be slower than in 2018, but still stay at a positive level, SBV monetary policy will be managed more prudently but still loosened in general. The reasonable price zone of VNIndex in 2019 is 911-942 points, slightly increasing compared to the end of 2018 thanks to the positive growth of market EPS, although P/E of the market i

Stock market had positive growth in Q3 after a sharp plunge in Q2 as oil price rebounded, concerns over trade war temporarily cooled down, domestic inflation was kept under control and companies’ performances continued to grow considerably in Q2. Foreign investors returned to net sell in Q3 after net buying for 6 consecutive quarters with sales concentrating in July and August on real estate stocks such as VIC, VHM, VRE, and NVL… External risks maintained their great impact on the recovery trend of the market, including trade war, tightening monetary policy of large Central Banks, along with domestic risks such as inflation, exchange rate and prudent policy of SBV… However, thanks to the significant growth of companies’ performances and the recovery phase of the economy, Vnindex is forecast to keep rising and approaching the 1050-1080 zone in Q4.