Macro Outlook Report

2H21 Macro oulook

Exportation is a bright spot

Macro outlook 2Q21

GDP growth in 2021 should slightly go down to 6.5% from the previous level of 6.6%

Macro Outlook 2021

Out of the woods

Vietnam Macro outlook - 4Q20

Vietnam GDP growth in the first nine months of the year hit 20-year lows, but the recovery in agricultural sector, manufacturing and domestic consumption amid the COVID-19 was a bright spot that helped Vietnam become one of the few countries in the world with positive economic growth

2H20 Macro outlook

2020E GDP growth at 3.0% given recoveries in domestic consumption and public disbursement

Vietnam Macro Outlook - 2Q20

+ Public investment acceleration + EVFTA effective from 2Q20 Risks: + Demand-supply shocks by COVID-19 + Economic growth forces interrupted

Vietnam Macro Economic Overview - October 2019

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in October rose to 9.2% YoY, slightly decreasing compared to the data in September, mainly due to the plunge in coke and refined oil production. However, PMI has been in a downtrend in three consecutive months, which led this index down to 50 points – the lowest in the last four years. This will be a worrisome factor to the processing and manufacturing sector during the year-end period as the growth rate of new order number will turn down sharply. Inflation also needs to be closely watched in the last two months as pork price moves are unpredictable. It is most likely that there would be a trade deficit in November and December as companies will import a large volume of manufacturing and consumer goods for year-end production activities and preparation for Lunar New Year. Liquidity in the banking system in the last two months may be not abundant as the Circular No.58/2019/TT-BTC will affect the deposit sources of the State Treasury at commer

Macro economic outlook - 4Q/2019

Vietnam’s 3Q GDP figures show more evidence of the SBV’s successful sterilization – with inflation in check, the VND stable, and exports remaining robust – and provides ample policy room for 4Q and into 2020E. Implications for our 4Q outlook include: 1) GDP growth to remain healthy at 6.9%-7.0%, albeit at a slower pace than 2017-2018 amid the ongoing US-China trade war; 2) CPI to moderate further to 2.49% and average 2.6% for all of 2019 (with core inflation manageable at 1.9% YoY); 3) money supply and credit growth of 13% and 14%, respectively, to keep the USD/VND exchange rate stable at VND23,350 by year-end and keep depreciation mild at 0.5%-1.0% YTD. Processing and manufacturing should continue to drive solid GDP growth as recovery of mobile phone manufacturing keeps export growth positive in 4Q. Falling trade demand from ongoing trade tensions between the US and China will likely slow 4Q GDP growth to 6.9%-7.0% and below 2017-2018 levels. Inflation has already fallen to the lowe

Macro Economic Overview - August 2019

IIP in August was still positive thanks to a surge in coal production and an moderate increase in mobile phone production. PMI in August tumbled over July, mainly because of the weakening signs in investment goods.

Vietnam Macro Economic Overview - July 2019

IIP in July slightly rebounded compared to June’s. Domestic demand strongly increased, which also resulted in higher retail sales. Agriculture sector still recorded a low growth. CPI inched up in July and the average CPI in the first 7 months of 2019 was the lowest in the last 3 years. A trade surplus was posted in July, thanks to a surge in export growth. Total registered FDI slowed down compared to the same period last year, while disbursed FDI remained stable. USD/VND exchange rates were relatively stable in July, interbank and unofficial exchange rates decreased to the buying rate at SBV. There was a slump in interbank exchange rates in July, and a net-withdrawal from the SBV in OMOs. Primary and secondary government bond trading in July was busy in July with a large trading volume.